Development of an early alert model for pandemic situations in Germany.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pointed out the need for new technical approaches to increase the preparedness of healthcare systems. One important measure is to develop innovative early warning systems. Along those lines, we first compiled a corpus of relevant COVID-19 related symptoms with the help of a disease ontology, text mining and statistical analysis. Subsequently, we applied statistical and machine learning (ML) techniques to time series data of symptom related Google searches and tweets spanning the time period from March 2020 to June 2022. In conclusion, we found that a long-short-term memory (LSTM) jointly trained on COVID-19 symptoms related Google Trends and Twitter data was able to accurately forecast up-trends in classical surveillance data (confirmed cases and hospitalization rates) 14 days ahead. In both cases, F1 scores were above 98% and 97%, respectively, hence demonstrating the potential of using digital traces for building an early alert system for pandemics in Germany.

Development of a rare disease algorithm to identify persons at risk of Gaucher disease using electronic health records in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of Gaucher disease (GD) allows for disease-specific treatment before significant symptoms arise, preventing/delaying onset of complications. Yet, many endure years-long diagnostic odysseys. We report the development of a machine learning algorithm to identify patients with GD from electronic health records. METHODS: We utilized Optum's de-identified Integrated Claims-Clinical dataset (2007-2019) for feature engineering and algorithm training/testing, based on clinical characteristics of GD. Two algorithms were selected: one based on age of feature occurrence (age-based), and one based on occurrence of features (prevalence-based). Performance was compared with an adaptation of the available clinical diagnostic algorithm for identifying patients with diagnosed GD. Undiagnosed patients highly-ranked by the algorithms were compared with diagnosed GD patients. RESULTS: Splenomegaly was the most important predictor for diagnosed GD with both algorithms, followed by geographical location (northeast USA), thrombocytopenia, osteonecrosis, bone density disorders, and bone pain. Overall, 1204 and 2862 patients, respectively, would need to be assessed with the age- and prevalence-based algorithms, compared with 20,743 with the clinical diagnostic algorithm, to identify 28 patients with diagnosed GD in the integrated dataset. Undiagnosed patients highly-ranked by the algorithms had similar clinical manifestations as diagnosed GD patients. CONCLUSIONS: The age-based algorithm identified younger patients, while the prevalence-based identified patients with advanced clinical manifestations. Their combined use better captures GD heterogeneity. The two algorithms were about 10-20-fold more efficient at identifying GD patients than the clinical diagnostic algorithm. Application of these algorithms could shorten diagnostic delay by identifying undiagnosed GD patients.

High-Dose Influenza Vaccine Is Associated With Reduced Mortality Among Older Adults With Breakthrough Influenza Even When There Is Poor Vaccine-Strain Match.

BACKGROUND: High-dose (HD) influenza vaccine offers improved protection from influenza virus infection among older adults compared with standard-dose (SD) vaccine. Here, we explored whether HD vaccine attenuates disease severity among older adults with breakthrough influenza. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of US claims data for influenza seasons 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019, defined as 1 October through 30 April, among adults aged ≥65 years. After adjusting the different cohorts for the probability of vaccination conditional on patients' characteristics, we compared 30-day mortality rate post-influenza among older adults who experienced breakthrough infection after receipt of HD or SD influenza vaccines and among those not vaccinated (NV). RESULTS: We evaluated 44 456 influenza cases: 23 109 (52%) were unvaccinated, 15 037 (33.8%) received HD vaccine, and 6310 (14.2%) received SD vaccine. Significant reductions in mortality rates among breakthrough cases were observed across all 3 seasons for HD vs NV, ranging from 17% to 29% reductions. A significant mortality reduction of 25% was associated with SD vaccination vs NV in the 2016-2017 season when there was a good match between circulating influenza viruses and selected vaccine strains. When comparing HD vs SD cohorts, mortality reductions were higher among those who received HD in the last 2 seasons when mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating H3N2 viruses was documented, albeit not significant. CONCLUSIONS: HD vaccination was associated with lower post-influenza mortality among older adults with breakthrough influenza, even during seasons when antigenically drifted H3N2 circulated. Improved understanding of the impact of different vaccines on attenuating disease severity is warranted when assessing vaccine policy recommendations.

Modeling approaches for early warning and monitoring of pandemic situations as well as decision support.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of preparedness of many healthcare systems against pandemic situations. In response, many population-level computational modeling approaches have been proposed for predicting outbreaks, spatiotemporally forecasting disease spread, and assessing as well as predicting the effectiveness of (non-) pharmaceutical interventions. However, in several countries, these modeling efforts have only limited impact on governmental decision-making so far. In light of this situation, the review aims to provide a critical review of existing modeling approaches and to discuss the potential for future developments.

M1 and M2 macrophages derived from THP-1 cells differentially modulate the response of cancer cells to etoposide.

BACKGROUND: Tumor associated macrophages (TAMs) are present in high density in solid tumors. TAMs share many characteristics with alternatively activated macrophages, also called M2. They have been shown to favor tumor development and a role in chemoresistance has also been suggested. Here, we investigated the effects of M2 in comparison to M1 macrophages on cancer cell sensitivity to etoposide. METHODS: We set up a model of macrophage polarization, starting from THP-1 monocytes differentiated into macrophages using PMA (Phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate). Once differentiated (M0 macrophages), they were incubated with IL-4 and IL-13 in order to obtain M2 polarized macrophages or with IFN-gamma and LPS for classical macrophage activation (M1). To mimic the communication between cancer cells and TAMs, M0, M1 or M2 macrophages and HepG2 or A549 cancer cells were co-cultured during respectively 16 (HepG2) or 24 (A549) hours, before etoposide exposure for 24 (HepG2) or 16 (A549) hours. After the incubation, the impact of etoposide on macrophage polarization was studied and cancer cell apoptosis was assessed by western-blot for cleaved caspase-3 and cleaved PARP-1 protein, caspase activity assay and FACS analysis of Annexin V and PI staining. RESULTS: mRNA and protein expression of M1 and M2 markers confirmed the polarization of THP-1-derived macrophages, which provide a new, easy and well-characterized model of polarized human macrophages. Etoposide-induced cancer cell apoptosis was markedly reduced in the presence of THP-1 M2 macrophages, while apoptosis was increased in cells co-cultured with M1 macrophages. On the other hand, etoposide did not influence M1 or M2 polarization. CONCLUSIONS: These results evidence for the first time a clear protective effect of M2 on the contrary to M1 macrophages on etoposide-induced cancer cell apoptosis.

Taxol-induced unfolded protein response activation in breast cancer cells exposed to hypoxia: ATF4 activation regulates autophagy and inhibits apoptosis.

Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the resistance against chemotherapy-induced cell death is still of great interest since the number of patients with cancer increases and relapse is commonly observed. Indeed, the development of hypoxic regions as well as UPR (unfolded protein response) activation is known to promote cancer cell adaptive responses to the stressful tumor microenvironment and resistance against anticancer therapies. Therefore, the impact of UPR combined to hypoxia on autophagy and apoptosis activation during taxol exposure was investigated in MDA-MB-231 and T47D breast cancer cells. The results showed that taxol rapidly induced UPR activation and that hypoxia modulated taxol-induced UPR activation differently according to the different UPR pathways (PERK, ATF6, and IRE1α). The putative involvement of these signaling pathways in autophagy or in apoptosis regulation in response to taxol exposure was investigated. However, while no link between the activation of these three ER stress sensors and autophagy or apoptosis regulation could be evidenced, results showed that ATF4 activation, which occurs independently of UPR activation, was involved in taxol-induced autophagy completion. In addition, an ATF4-dependent mechanism leading to cancer cell adaptation and resistance against taxol-induced cell death was evidenced. Finally, our results demonstrate that expression of ATF4, in association with hypoxia-induced genes, can be used as a biomarker of a poor prognosis for human breast cancer patients supporting the conclusion that ATF4 might play an important role in adaptation and resistance of breast cancer cells to chemotherapy in hypoxic tumors.

Effects of copper sulfate-oxidized or myeloperoxidase-modified LDL on lipid loading and programmed cell death in macrophages under hypoxia.

Atheromatous plaques contain heavily lipid-loaded macrophages that die, hence generating the necrotic core of these plaques. Since plaque instability and rupture is often correlated with a large necrotic core, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying foam cell death. Furthermore, macrophages within the plaque are associated with hypoxic areas but little is known about the effect of low oxygen partial pressure on macrophage death. The aim of this work was to unravel macrophage death mechanisms induced by oxidized low-density lipoproteins (LDL) both under normoxia and hypoxia. Differentiated macrophages were incubated in the presence of native, copper sulfate-oxidized, or myeloperoxidase-modified LDL. The unfolded protein response, apoptosis, and autophagy were then investigated. The unfolded protein response and autophagy were triggered by myeloperoxidase-modified LDL and, to a larger extent, by copper sulfate-oxidized LDL. Electron microscopy observations showed that oxidized LDL induced excessive autophagy and apoptosis under normoxia, which were less marked under hypoxia. Myeloperoxidase-modified LDL were more toxic and induced a higher level of apoptosis. Hypoxia markedly decreased apoptosis and cell death, as marked by caspase activation. In conclusion, the cell death pathways induced by copper sulfate-oxidized and myeloperoxidase-modified LDL are different and are differentially modulated by hypoxia.

Hypoxia-induced modulation of apoptosis and BCL-2 family proteins in different cancer cell types.

Hypoxia plays an important role in the resistance of tumour cells to chemotherapy. However, the exact mechanisms underlying this process are not well understood. Moreover, according to the cell lines, hypoxia differently influences cell death. The study of the effects of hypoxia on the apoptosis induced by 5 chemotherapeutic drugs in 7 cancer cell types showed that hypoxia generally inhibited the drug-induced apoptosis. In most cases, the effect of hypoxia was the same for all the drugs in one cell type. The expression profile of 93 genes involved in apoptosis as well as the protein level of BCL-2 family proteins were then investigated. In HepG2 cells that are strongly protected against cell death by hypoxia, hypoxia decreased the abundance of nearly all the pro-apoptotic BCL-2 family proteins while none of them are decreased in A549 cells that are not protected against cell death by hypoxia. In HepG2 cells, hypoxia decreased NOXA and BAD abundance and modified the electrophoretic mobility of BIM(EL). BIM and NOXA are important mediators of etoposide-induced cell death in HepG2 cells and the hypoxia-induced modification of these proteins abundance or post-translational modifications partly account for chemoresistance. Finally, the modulation of the abundance and/or of the post-translational modifications of most proteins of the BCL-2 family by hypoxia involves p53-dependent and -independent pathways and is cell type-dependent. A better understanding of these cell-to-cell variations is crucial in order to overcome hypoxia-induced resistance and to ameliorate cancer therapy.